Forecasting Quotes

The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.

There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.

And this is one way to do technology forecasting; get a sense of where technology is, and then anticipate the next upturn.

Computer modelling for weather forecasting, and indeed for climate forecasting, has reached its limits.

Now it will take a long time to scale biofuels, but I'm the only one in the world forecasting oil dropping in price to $35 a barrel by 2030. I'll put it on the record: Oil will not be able to compete with cellulosic biofuels. If you do it from food, the food will get so expensive you can't make fuel out of it.